Evaluating Access to Pediatric Psychosocial Services: A Discrete Event Simulation Approach Under Uncertainty

Informing policy-making in healthcare access requires modeling that captures dynamics between healthcare supply and demand, further identifying opportunities to address barriers to care. This paper contributes with a novel modeling approach for measuring and evaluating access within a healthcare network, by aligning patient demand with provider service availability using discrete-event simulation (DES). The access model accounts for statistical uncertainties in demand and supply in addition to the inherent complex interactions between supply and demand and access constraints in the system. Using the DES access model, we focus on access to psychosocial services for Medicaid-insured children, incorporating uncertainties specified by statistical distributions using a hierarchical Bayesian model informed by Medicaid claims data and other data sources. We perform temporal and geographical analyses on multiple access measures at different resolutions, motivating potential decisions and interventions to mitigate the trade-off between effectiveness, efficiency and equity in access to psychosocial services.

Recommended citation: Xie, Y, Garcia, G, Song, E, and Serban, N (2025). "Evaluating Access to Pediatric Psychosocial Services: A Discrete Event Simulation Approach Under Uncertainty." Journal of Simulation, September, 1-24.
Download Paper